Business cycle dating committee wiki

First, personal income, employment, and industrial production were all substantially lower in October and November than in September.

Second, the NBER's practice has been to identify the highs and lows of economic activity that are due to the operation of normal economic forces; temporary movements in activity resulting from unusual forces, such as strikes, have been discounted in identifying turning points.

Although the committee concluded that it was not necessary to invoke this rule to determine that the trough occurred in November rather than September or October, the rule strengthened the committee's confidence in its determination. The committee determined that the fourth quarter of 2001 was a quarterly trough in economic activity.

The NBER also maintains a quarterly chronology of the U. For more information, see the FAQs below and the more detailed description of the NBER's business cycle dating procedure at Romer, University of California, Berkeley; David H.

Two other indicators the committee focuses on-payroll employment and industrial production-remain well below their pre-recession peaks.

Indeed, the most recent data indicate that employment has not begun to recover at all.

The committee noted that the most recent data indicate that the broadest measure of economic activity-gross domestic product in constant dollars-has risen 4.0 percent from its low in the third quarter of 2001, and is 3.3 percent above its pre-recession peak in the fourth quarter of 2000.

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The committee also viewed the behavior of quarterly real GDP as strong evidence against the possibility that the trough occurred in December 2001, since there could be a December trough only if economic activity was declining over most of the fourth quarter.

The committee concluded that some of the depressed level of economic activity in September 2001 was the result of the exceptional events of September 11, and thus should not be considered in identifying the trough.

From October to November, industrial production and sales fell sharply, employment fell moderately, personal income rose very slightly, and monthly real GDP rose moderately.

CAMBRIDGE July 17 -- The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research met yesterday. The trough marks the end of the recession that began in March 2001 and the beginning of an expansion.

At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. The recession lasted 8 months, which is slightly less than average for recessions since World War II.

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